BETTING GUIDE: Who are the favourites as F1 arrives in Austin for the United States Grand Prix?

Formula 1 heads to Austin’s Circuit of The Americas as the United States Grand Prix hosts Round 19 of the championship, but what do the odds say about who might come out on top? Read on to find out...

Odds are provided by F1’s Official Betting Data Supplier ALT Sports Data, are subject to change and are presented in decimal form: for every $1 wagered you would win the figure represented by the odds; so, if Verstappen is favourite at 1.50, you would win $1.50 for every dollar bet.

The odds for the win

Three races have passed since a McLaren driver took the chequered flag first, with Oscar Piastri and Lando Norris not looking quite as dominant as they were.

Since his win at Zandvoort, Piastri has registered a podium, a DNF, and a fourth-place finish, painting a bleak picture compared to his first 15 outings. The Aussie’s record in Austin also leaves much to be desired, with one DNF and a fifth-place return in his two visits.

On the other side of the McLaren garage, Norris sits 22 points adrift of Piastri in the Drivers’ Championship. COTA hasn’t yielded the highest returns for the Brit over the years, but he did thrive in 2023, crossing the line second behind Max Verstappen.

Speaking of Verstappen, he’s finding his rhythm in Red Bull’s RB21, with four consecutive top-two finishes leading into this weekend – two of those races seeing him grab the lion’s share of points.

The odds for a podium finish

Mercedes driver George Russell reminded us in Singapore what he is capable of at his best. He’s fresh off his second triumph of the year and is tied with Verstappen for the best finishing average in the last five rounds at 3.0.

While you can’t discount his chances for top honours, this isn’t a Grand Prix at which he has shone in his career; his best result here is two fifth-place outcomes in 2022 and 2023. However, he’s proved to be a regular contender for a top-three finish in 2025, collecting eight in 18 rounds.

Ferrari’s Charles Leclerc returns to defend his Texan crown after a rocky season in the red car. He’s only managed five podiums and remains win-less, but past performances at this venue may excite him. Leclerc has driven onto the rostrum twice in his last three visits.

Podiums have eluded his team mate this year, as Lewis Hamilton remains without any after 18 rounds. Despite his recent run, he’s popped onto our radar because Ferrari have put a car inside the top three in the previous three trips to this track.

The odds for a top-six finish

After a difficult run, Mercedes rookie Kimi Antonelli is finding his groove again with consecutive top-six outings. The Italian has been in this bracket at eight rounds, with the highlight being his third-place return in Montreal.

Carlos Sainz showed in Baku that he can still compete with the best, despite trading Maranello for Grove. It was his only top six to date in a Williams, but he returns to a track where he’s joined in the champagne celebrations in his last two appearances.

Consistency hasn’t been a strong point for Liam Lawson, but the Kiwi knows how to nudge his way into the top six. He’s pulled it off twice in his past eight appearances.

Racing Bulls team mate Isack Hadjar also has two top-six finishes to his name, one of them a brilliant maiden podium at Zandvoort, while another driver to look out for is Alex Albon – a five-time top-six finisher this year.

The odds for a top-10 finish

Double World Champion Fernando Alonso collected his seventh top 10 of the season in Singapore. All seven have arrived in the last 10 rounds, highlighting solid improvements to the AMR25 towards the business end of the campaign.

Lance Stroll has also contributed five top 10s to Aston Martin’s cause, with three of them coming in his last seven starts. The issue for the Canadian is consistency, which is highlighted by a 12.40 finishing average in his past five attempts.

Red Bull’s Yuki Tsunoda has displayed signs of improvement in recent appearances, recording two top 10s in the last four rounds.

Turning to the rookies, Ollie Bearman continues to quietly go about his business, snatching his second top 10 in four starts over in southeast Asia. Another youngster who we’re tracking in this category is Gabriel Bortoleto. The Brazilian is a four-time top 10 finisher this season, earning all of them in his last eight Grands Prix.

The odds for who will be fastest in Qualifying

Four-time reigning World Champion Verstappen will exit the pits for Qualifying with the most pole positions in 2025. The Red Bull star has stopped the clock the fastest in six sessions, one more than title rival Piastri.

Piastri last took pole in the Netherlands, which is better than his team mate, Norris, who previously did it in Belgium. Norris has lifted the Pirelli Pole Position Award four times this season, and he earned the honour here in Austin on his previous trip.

Russell handed Mercedes their second pole position of the year in Singapore, and subsequently their second Grand Prix win. However, he is definitely an outsider to replicate the performance in Texas.

If you’re hunting outsiders, then Ferrari is worth a peek after producing the fastest qualifier in two of the past four editions. Sainz did it for the Italian team in 2022, and Leclerc followed suit in 2023. Leclerc has one pole position in the bank this term, which he captured in Hungary.

The odds for the winning team

McLaren have typically headed the Teams’ odds sheet this year, but they haven’t produced the victorious car in the past three rounds. Austin also hasn’t proven a happy hunting ground for them in over a decade, last putting up the winning car in 2012, which happened to be Hamilton’s final triumph for the team.

Red Bull have looked like a much-improved outfit in the previous four rounds, prevailing in 50% of them. They also have history on their side, with three victories in Texas since 2021.

Ferrari are the defending winners, but they haven’t properly challenged for top honours since Monaco, when Leclerc had a shot at toppling Norris. Besides that, they’ve had to settle for the minor podium places and points.

Mercedes check into the Lone Star State after winning 50% of the previous 10 races on this circuit. The last one arrived in 2019, courtesy of Valtteri Bottas. However, the outfit are in high spirits after claiming their second victory of the term a fortnight ago.