From title contenders to the biggest surprises – Our writers share their predictions for the 2026 season

After several team launch events, the Barcelona Shakedown and two pre-season tests in Bahrain, all eyes are now on the Australian Grand Prix, which will kick off a busy 24-round calendar in 2026. Before the action begins, we put our writers Lawrence Barretto, James Hinchcliffe, Chris Medland and Alex Jacques on the spot by asking them to share their predictions for the 2026 season, from the drivers that will triumph to what could be the biggest surprise of the year…

Who will be the top three drivers in 2026?

Lawrence Barretto (F1 Correspondent & Presenter): George Russell levelled up last year and I reckon he will build on that and make the most of a very strong Mercedes package to win his first World Championship, with four-time World Champion Max Verstappen second and Ferrari's Lewis Hamilton third.

James Hinchcliffe (IndyCar Race Winner and Analyst): 2026 is one of the most wide-open seasons we've seen in F1. The sweeping rule changes don't just mean the team has to get the car right, and the power unit supplier needs to get the engines right, but the drivers themselves are having to re-learn how to drive to find the maximum performance. All that to say, Mercedes look strong as a team and PU supplier, so George Russell makes my top three. Lando Norris, with a returning champion’s mentality (and the Mercedes PU) is on the list. Finally, I think the complicated nature of managing energy falls into the hands of drivers with excess bandwidth while driving, which means Max Verstappen has to be on the list.

Chris Medland (Special Contributor): I feel like this shouldn’t be tougher this year but it is! It’s so tricky to be sure of which teams will give their drivers race-winning machinery all year long, but there’s definitely scope for it to be any of the top four. I’m going to play it relatively safe here, with Max Verstappen likely to still score the bulk of Red Bull’s points, George Russell and Mercedes at the very least in the mix far more often than the past, and Lando Norris as the defending champion.

Alex Jacques (F1 TV Commentator): I'm going for George Russell, Charles Leclerc, Kimi Antonelli to be our top three by the end of this season.

Who will be the top three teams in 2026?

LB: I suspect Mercedes will reclaim their Teams' Championship crown, edging out Ferrari with McLaren just pipping Red Bull for third.

JH: Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari are showing the strongest right now – a combination of getting a handle on the new regs, based on what we've seen in testing, and proven driver pairings. The only potential caveat being Kimi Antonelli still having some miles to run before he's considered a genuine contender, but he ended last season on a massive upward trend. If reliability in race conditions can match what we saw in Bahrain, this will be a tough trio to topple.

CM: It’s definitely three from a group of four, so we should really all be getting at least two out of three right here! I’m going to go with Mercedes, McLaren and Ferrari, solely on the basis of driver line-ups and recent history suggesting the second seat at Red Bull is a tough place to be. That could change this year, but the three I’ve gone for all have proven frontrunners in both seats already

AJ: I still think Mercedes will be out in front if a touch fragile in the early rounds, while Ferrari will be strong on tracks with more medium and slow corners. For me, McLaren will slip to third but with a strong development improvement as the year progresses.

What will be the biggest surprise of the season in 2026?

LB: Alpine will benefit from turning their attention to the 2026 rules early doors – plus the arrival of Mercedes power – to jump from last place last year to top of the midfield, with Pierre Gasly securing his first end-of-year top-10 finish since 2021.

JH: For some reason the Alpine in the hands of Pierre Gasly is giving me a good feeling. The team quietly worked on the 2026 program all last season and, combined with the heads-up move to Mercedes power, could be well placed to drag themselves not just off the bottom of the Teams’ table, but to the top of the midfield battle ready to pounce on any missteps from the big four. We might be surprised just how regularly that car can score points.

CM: How tough points are to come by. The big four looking like the big four again is one thing, but the potential gap to the midfield is likely to be bigger, and that could lock out the top eight positions on weekends where those four execute.

With seven other teams then vying over the lower point-scoring places, some could end up really struggling to get on the board, and I could easily see last year’s second-lowest tally (Sauber with 70 points) being enough for P5 in the Teams’ Championship this season.

AJ: I think we could get completely different team approaches to running races and, hopefully, a lot of Grands Prix being settled in the final stages.

What are you most looking forward to in 2026?

LB: The development race. A team that starts the year strongly will likely not be the strongest team come the end of the year, with teams set for a fluctuation in performance from track to track and month to month as everyone brings updates at different times. That should ensure plenty of unpredictability all season long.

JH: For me, the thing I'm most looking forward to in 2026 is the variation in the cars. And by that I certainly don't mean that I hope the disparity between teams is five seconds front to back and the competitive order is the same week in and week out. More that after a rules set that had been optimized by every team over its course, there wasn't much variation team to team on who would be quick and where. Sure, we knew McLaren were strong in medium to high speed and that the Red Bull didn't love kerbs, but everyone had tempered those traits enough that it didn't make a big difference to the result.

This year, with all the different solutions on the chassis and engine side, I can't wait to see who excels at a long, fast track. Who has the advantage on tighter configurations with less energy management requirements? Whose car works well in cooler temps, and who excels in the heat? With the wide variety of track layouts and the varying concepts on cars up and down pit lane, it will be fun learning which venues will suit which cars.

CM: Seeing the rapid rate of development. Ferrari come to mind here as a team that look like they could start strongly again, but can they keep it up? It’s not just about the frontrunners, either, as I’m fascinated to see how Cadillac get on as a new team and whether they can improve relative to anyone else. Similarly Audi as a new full constructor, including their power unit. And Aston Martin have all the resources, personnel and ambition to turn that situation around, it’s just a matter of how long that takes.

AJ: I'm really excited for the unpredictability of the opening races with a totally new formula, and the rate of development from teams who start on the back foot in Melbourne. The changes in order across the year could be absolutely fascinating.

One bold prediction for 2026?

LB: This is probably too bold considering their difficult start to 2026, but I'm sticking to one of the five bold predictions I made on January 1. I reckon Williams – who surprised everyone by getting not one but two podiums last year – will secure their first Grand Prix win since 2012.

JH: With the way their season ended in '25, and what we've seen in testing, Haas will get their first podium in 2026. I think both drivers are capable of the feat, with Estaban Ocon a race winner and Ollie Bearman showing his ability to perform under pressure at the front. The car looked strong in testing, the TGR relationship mature enough to start realizing some true gains, the Ferrari PU has some clear advantages early on, and they, as a team, seem poised to take a big step this season.

CM: We get at least seven different race winners. Seeing as we only had four last year, and this is the first year of new rules (when you could easily have dominance), it feels really exciting to be able to say that and not sound completely crazy.

I don’t know if Isack Hadjar will have enough race weekends where he has a car capable of fighting for victory and Max Verstappen not in the frame to make it eight drivers, but I think we could be set for a bigger spread of winners.

AJ: How about a first podium for Audi in their debut season?